Finance

The Canadian cannabis market goes from euphoria to disappointment

The global legal market size was estimated at $13.8 billion in 2018 and is projected to expand by 2025. When Canada became the first major industrialized nation to legalize cannabis visions of billions of dollars in profits inspired growers, retailers, and investors. Canadian cannabis companies should continue to benefit in 2020 from a new segment of the market being open for business.

Canadian cannabis was a big hit in the fall of 2018 during legalization. This enthusiasm was dampened by chaotic management which allowed the illegal market to flourish.

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A “gold rush” ignited the legal Canadian cannabis market

On Oct. 17, 2018, when Justin Trudeau’s government made Canada the first G7 country to make cannabis production and sale legal, it was a gold rush. Investors and individuals set out to conquer an industry that promised exponential growth.

The shares of Canadian cannabis companies already active in the medical cannabis market skyrocketed on the stock market.

For example, Canopy Growth, a global giant based in Ontario, has seen its capitalization reach nearly $15 billion (CA$20 billion), with its share price rising from $1 in 2016 to $65 in September 2018.

The eight largest national companies in the sector including Aurora Cannabis, Aphria, and Quebec’s Hexo, are benefiting from the same enthusiasm.

Canadian cannabis forecasts were optimistic during legalization

This craze is also based on very optimistic forecasts. In 2015, a study published by Deloitte estimated that the Canadian cannabis market “excluding medical cannabis” would be worth $6 billion annually.

“Everyone wanted to be part of it,” recalled Mickael Dufresne, President of the Hessen trading firm in October 2019. “Everyone; even those who were not aware of the risks inherent in an emerging industry.”

However, the euphoria has largely dissipated. The Canadian cannabis market is now emerging for what it is: a buoyant sector for the long term, but one that will still experience a few ups and downs before companies reach interesting break-even points.

Canada has still yet to expunge the illegal market with legalization causing monetary concerns for cannabis companies. (Source)

In truth, Canopy’s inventory has plunged 50% in a matter of months, to at present stand at around $27. In the autumn, Hexo determined to withdraw its monetary forecast for 2020, inflicting its title to drop to $2.11 in mid-November, and proceeded to dismiss 1/4 of its workforce.

The nationwide market sees a slow realization

The expectations had been actually unrealistic as to the rapid earnings to be anticipated, and the investments to launch on the nationwide market had been undoubtedly undervalued.

However, a number of exogenous elements additionally clarify the tough start-up of the sector.

To promote authorized cannabis, the shops are inconsistently distributed all through the territory and their general quantity is much under targets. Alberta opened 300 stores in a single year, while Ontario, with its 13 million folks, opened only 25.

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(Featured image by sebastiaan stam via Unsplash)

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First published in Le Monde, a third-party contributor translated and adapted the article from the original. In case of discrepancy, the original will prevail.

Although we made reasonable efforts to provide accurate translations, some parts may be incorrect. Hemp.im assumes no responsibility for errors, omissions or ambiguities in the translations provided on this website. Any person or entity relying on translated content does so at their own risk. Hemp.im is not responsible for losses caused by such reliance on the accuracy or reliability of translated information. If you wish to report an error or inaccuracy in the translation, we encourage you to contact us.

Michael Jermaine Cards

Michael Jermaine Cards is a business executive and a financial journalist, with a focus on IT, innovation and transportation, as well as crypto and AI. He writes about robotics, automation, deep learning, multimodal transit, among others. He updates his readers on the latest market developments, tech and CBD stocks, and even the commodities industry. He does management consulting parallel to his writing, and has been based in Singapore for the past 15 years.

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