The effects of the coronavirus are a drastic experience in the stock markets. Many stocks are going downhill, with entire indices currently in correction mode, and only a few stocks escape this market trend at present. In exceptional cases, it takes a remarkable impulse to be able to score here. Nevertheless, there are stocks that could benefit operationally from the virus.
There was no bad news for cannabis stocks in week 9, and the chart picture had improved a bit in the weeks before, for many stocks, even while the coronavirus pulled the markets all down. Some cannabis companies presented balance sheets, and there was news about drug policies, especially with cannabis as an economic factor, medicine, and luxury food. The product now being represented on more and more fairs has now become a norm for many people, even in ossified countries like Germany.
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New studies give hope for medical use that fits perfectly. For example, Alzheimer’s disease or against the dreaded multi-resistant germs, if we were to cleverly put a few cannabis stocks into a portfolio, at least as a test, we might be able to make the deal of a lifetime after the current decline on the stock markets.
Let’s stick with the coronavirus for the moment. Not only do the markets freeze and cannabis stocks lubricate because of global fears – an epidemic in the USA, and in Europe, with hundreds of deaths, contaminated surfaces in buses, trains, and collapsing economic cycles, would be a worst-case scenario. Stock exchanges like to play through in their minds. If vaporizer components do not arrive from China, and the cargo ships with the commercial cannabis do not come as well, then this will affect the dispensaries and head shops in the country. At the same time, delivery services for cannabis could benefit, as people stay at home and smoke cannabis in the neighborhood while watching the news about the virus epidemic.
In California, after the successful cannabis legalization, the authorities finally tried to eliminate the black market. In order to eliminate the flourishing illegal trade, taxes will not be lowered, as it would be more sensible for cannabis products, but, there will be higher penalties for those who do not have a license to operate a grass shop between San Francisco and San Diego. Anyone who wants to grow cannabis commercially without a license, or runs a shop without a license, will be fined up to $50.000 from now on – per day! The only question is how the authorities can better ensure control. After all, the vast majority of illegal hemp-related businesses in California have an official from some office or other.
Further reports concerned Mexico, where the president Obrador ignored the judgments on cannabis legally like a real caudillo and Luxembourg – the Grand Duchy will go through the hemp release in 2021, but would not like to see any EU foreigners served in the up to 14 shops. What would the European Court of Justice have to say in the event of a courageous complaint? Malawi allowed just the cannabis medicine on prescription and in the USA probably only the states themselves will legalize, for the time being, the president Trump does not move and we are curious whether next month in March the UNO changes something in the international evaluation of hemp, for this there are some promising hints these days.
Cannabis index and performance of cannabis shares
Double-digit losses across all countries, but in week 8 it was mainly the nasty virus that pulled the cannabis stocks out from under the ground. Canadian cannabis papers lost a little less than the US cannabis shares and as expected, there are only peaks in sales. Unfortunately, this also destroys the actually nice ground that many stocks around cannabis had just started to develop – the masterpiece of Chinese biology leads to heavy losses on all markets worldwide.
Selected shares at a glance
- Canopy Growth: Analysts disagree, Constellation Brands’ cash supply is faltering, yet the paper did not sag as extremely as in other trading weeks before. Investors may be able to position themselves at prices around $19 (€17)), but as long as Corona continues to accompany us without any prospect of improvement, an entry in Canopy Growth is a risky bet, even beyond all the fundamental data.
- Aurora Cannabis: Except for not even $1.33 (€1.20) it went down and all the warners who talked about prices around $1.1 (€1) a few months ago are now stroking their bellies – the market simply assumes that Aurora Cannabis is running out of cash! At the same time, however, well-meaning analysts’ assessments are piling up and no one wants to forget that this company has huge assets. Is there any speculation here, perhaps even in view of the extremely low prices?
- Tilray: From $20 (€18) down to $13 (€12), that is already clear! Tilray is currently being sued for trademark rights, but will soon be presenting quarterly figures and actually the company has not done badly, especially since the international demand for cannabis exports is steadily increasing. Is this slaughter-fest only due to the general fear of the virus?
- Aphria: No real news, just a few chart analyses, but the drop below $3.3 (€3) is already alarming. The Aphria share is doing quite badly after quite good figures and apparently many people have simply sold off some profits from last year.
Outlook for calendar week 10/2020
The corona danger hovers over everything and surely there will be a few announcements, for example from the central banks, to pour additional money into the fluctuating markets. It remains to be seen whether this will help the already badly shaken cannabis stocks.
Short on cannabis and thus a bet on falling prices is, of course, a good idea and because there are more and more certificates at least on the blue chips of grass stocks, some crashes could be silvered. Cannabis shares are a piece of normality on the stock market and why shouldn’t smart investors profit in both directions?
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First published in THC.GUIDE, a third-party contributor translated and adapted the article from the original. In case of discrepancy, the original will prevail.
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